Thursday, April 17, 2008

UN Population Projections

More: http://esa.un.org/unpp/

(Click image to enlarge)

Note the undeveloped regions' lingering growth rate, even after the majority of the developed world begins to stabilize, and the significant effect on the total world growth rate.

This can be quite striking when further illustrating the proportions of population growth in developed nations versus undeveloped nations (from http://www.sustainablescale.org/AreasofConcern/Population/PopulationandScale/QuickFacts.aspx):



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Environmental Impact of Immigration

How can immigration have a negative impact on the environment? Those people already exist, don't they? How will just moving from one place to the other alter how much waste they generate?

Carrying Capacity's Jason DinAlt explains:

http://www.carryingcapacity.org/DinAlt.htm


"Since many other authors have dealt with the fertility component of the damage done by unrestrained population growth, I will focus upon the immigration component, though the higher than average fertility rate of immigrants means that there is significant overlap between the two."

"Overwhelmingly, the reason people migrate to the U.S. is to improve their standard of living. This will change the impact they have on various natural resources. In other words, immigrants change their consumption and pollution patterns. It is often easy to quantify these changes - just measure their resource impact both before and after migration, and then compute the percentage change:"

The percentage change in pollution or depletion rate for one resource =

(U.S. per capita rate - sending country's per capita rate) x 100

---------------------------------------------------------------

sending country's per capita rate.

For example. consider someone who migrates from a hypothetical country where the average ChloroFlouroCarbon (CFC) emission per capita is 0.02 metric tons. When that person comes to America emission increases to 0.52 metric tons. That person's resource impact has increased by 2500%. The calculation is simple:"

(.52 - .02) x 100

-----------------

.02

Total U.S. fertility is 2.1 (replacement level), and has been growing rapidly for two decades.

Caucasian 1.7
African-American 2.5
Asian 2.5
Hispanic 3.9

As an example of what DinAlt is illustrating, his table shows that a Vietnamese immigrant in the US will have a 9,249% increase in energy consumption relative to the standard of living in their native homeland, as well as a 7,071% increase in CO2 generation, 175 % in methane production, 2,365 % in fresh water consumption, 802 % in fertilizer consumption, 11,214% in pesticide consumption. The average Indian will experience a 32,350% (!) increase in automobile usage.

Consumption/Pollution Changes for Legal Immigrants Coming From the Ten Main Sending Countries

COUNTRY exUSSR Philippines Vietnam Mexico China India Dom.Rep. Korea Jamaica Iran
Number of Legal Immigrants 56,839 55,376 55,278 52,866 31,629 31,165 30,177 21,628 18,025 16,019
Energy Consumption 55 % 3386 % 9249 % 508 % 1182% 3236% 2506 % 358 % 1087 % 507 %
Cattle Production -4 % 1379 % 751 % 16 % 499 % 73 % 29 % 684 % 236 % 166 %
Fish Production -41 % -31 % 77 % 44 % 134 % 443 % 658 % -65 % 435 % 384 %
CFC Production 125 % 3155 % ------- 824 % 4851% 11,025% ------- 346 % 28 % 850 %
CO2 (Industrial) 48 % 2877 % 7071 % 441 % 832 % 2457 % 1977 % 278 % 881 % 542 %
CO2 (Land use change) ------- -97 % -96 % -96 % ------- -37 % -51 % ------- 73 % -------
Methane Production 26 % 286 % 175 % 472 % 323 % 252 % 565 % 429 % 1929 % 441 %
Freshwater Consumption 53 % 296 % 2365 % 206 % 364 % 321 % 352 % 649 % 1341 % 125 %
Fertilizer Consumption 19 % 772 % 802 % 270 % 915 % 452 % 1182 % 255 % 494 % 247 %
Pesticide Consumption -19 % 2018 % 11214% 380 % 971 % 2307 % 226 % 422 % 160 % -------
Car Usage 900 % 7700 % ------- 600 % ------- 32350 % 2750 % 1800% 2750% 1200%
Defense Spending ------- 6973 % ------- 15057% 21120% 10510 % ------- 622 % ------- 3216%


He concludes, "...we need to recognize the simple fact that the last thing this world needs is more Americans." What DinAlt means, is that in order to maintain our mechanized American way of life, we can't expect to have the rest of the world be encouraged to adopt it as well. We are already sacrificing individual freedoms to regulate the pollution we alone generate.

And that doesn't mean the negative impacts will only affect America, China, Europe, and other highly industrialized nations, continents and regions combining high consumption with high populations and/or immigration. The impacts, just like unregulated immigration, will not obey borders:

Larry West Explains,

http://environment.about.com/od/pollution/a/cross_border.htm


"It’s a natural fact that wind and water don’t respect national boundaries. One country’s pollution quickly can, and often does, become another country’s environmental and economic crisis. And because the problem originates in another country, solving it becomes a matter of diplomacy and international relations, leaving the local people who are most affected with few real options.

A good example of this phenomenon is occurring in Asia, where cross-border pollution from China is causing serious environmental problems in Japan and South Korea as the Chinese continue to expand their economy at great environmental cost."

A planet of open borders, where half of the third world can become a fast food consuming, car driving, electricity dependent American with little effort in a matter of years, is hardly an issue of "equality" or disregarding one's place of birth; it's an issue of mutual international suicide.

We Americans already have trouble easing ourselves out of that destructive lifestyle, so why would encouraging the rest of the world to come here and adopt it be a valid solution, much less a humanitarian effort?

Map of Countries by Population Density

Click image to enlarge

John Feeney and BBC's The Green Room on Overpopulation

Environmental writer John Feeney, PhD, advises that we should stop environmental destruction via the root of the problem: "We must end world population growth, then reduce population size."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7078857.stm


"We humans face two problems of desperate importance. The first is our global ecological plight. The second is our difficulty acknowledging the first."

Does he have a point? I believe he does.

When you bring up pollution with most people, the image that naturally pops into their head is going to be a smoking car exhaust, an industrial sector, a mountain of rotting tires. Yet despite significantly cleaner cars and tighter environmental regulations than 30 years ago, negative human impact is rapidly becoming an even more critical concern. What do the above mentioned contributors of pollution have in common? For every human in an industrialized nation, the demand for these pollutant contributors increases. We have made progress in the improving the environmental qualities of these factors, yet we simply cannot keep up with the quantities and demand reflected by a rapidly growing industrialized population.

The chicken or the egg? In this case, it's not which came first, it's which one has gotta go. Do we sacrifice our freedom to technologically innovate, our transportation, our standard of living, whilst merely delaying the inevitable destruction of our health and planet, just for the sake of ignoring the controversial root of the problem? In my eyes, a sustainable solution is far more feasible than futile delay. And let's not forget that this type of pollution isn't the only wall overpopulation will eventually lead us into; fresh water, 2% of water on Earth, is already very finite. Previously featured on CSNBC, Green Chip Stocks (http://www.greenchipstocks.com) even states:
"The Earth is running out of fresh water."and "...the water industry closely resembles the oil industry in its infancy..." recommending early investment in fresh water as a precious resource. Population growth in Africa has repeatedly outpaced the development of agriculture to feed children. An estimated 97% of urban Indian drinking water is contaminated with human feces. We can hit many birds with one stone.

As Feeney puts it:
"Inevitably, our numbers will come down, whether voluntarily or through such natural means as famine or disease."

Visit John Feeneys own overpopulation blog at
growthmadness.org